SAVVY_MONKEY is hoping City fans can keep a healthy dose of realism and perspective ahead of the new season.
It’s all too easy to get caught up in the whirlwind of excitement that lies before us, and put all previous frameworks of reality to one side.
And why not? The last two seasons have been amazing, one incredible high after another, and the green and yellow party continues on with no sign of any hangover approaching anytime soon.
Well, maybe it’s time to stop ordering any more Sambuca shots and think about a mineral water or two, so as to ensure a slow come down rather than an abrupt shock as the reality of the difficulty of the season upon us hits home.
As much as there is a refreshing novelty about seeing our club in the ‘Premier League’ section of any newspaper or website, a quick look at the teams we’re up against should act as a reminder to the size of the challenge ahead.
In reality, there are 10-15 teams that we have no chance of finishing ahead of. This hurts, and feels somewhat defeatist.
We may beat a few of them, just like last time, but when it comes down to 38 games played, the very best we can hope for is semi-comfortable survival.
We are not going to win the league, we won`t qualify for Europe and we won`t finish in the top 10. It will be great seeing the star-studded millionaires up against the boys in yellow, but the reality is things are going to be different this season.
Lambert will do his upmost, and we`ll have days when we`ll feel like world beaters. But, can we finish ahead of the likes of Blackburn, Everton, Newcastle and Sunderland? To think so, is perhaps somewhat delusional.
However, what we can do (and I think we`re all much more confident of it this time than in 2004) and what many (including myself) firmly believe we will do is over the next few seasons establish ourselves as a Premier League side.
We will not hold onto Lambert forever, but by the time he leaves for the even higher echelons of football greatness (not possible is it?!) I would be satisfied if we have had 2 or 3 years of solid top-flight seasons behind us. This would leave the club much more stable and secure, and ensure that recent memories of league trips to Yeovil and Hartlepool would fade more quickly than they otherwise might.
So, how do we do that? What steps do we need to take to avoid becoming a Derby, Watford or Sunderland (c. 2006)? Under the McNally/Lambert regime, it feels more positive than that.
It feels like at the very worst we`ll become a yo-yo club of the likes of West Brom or Birmingham. However, where we need to be aiming for is developing ourselves into the likes of a Stoke, Bolton or Fulham.
Whilst these clubs haven`t always played the brand of football we expect at NR1, they have achieved relative stability in quite a short space of time;
Stoke City
– About to enter their fourth season in the top flight, they were promoted in 2008
– Since then, they`ve finished 12th, 11th and 13th (together with a Cup Final)
– Qualified for the Europa Cup for 2011/12
– 28k capacity, 27k average attendance
– One of the only profitable and sustainable clubs in English football
Tony Pulis has achieved this by a combination of developing younger players (such as Ryan Shawcross and Andy Wilkinson) and by adding experience/quality to that where he could.
In the first season up they bought Dave Kitson, Thomas Sørensen, Abdoulaye Faye and Danny Higginbotham. Since then, they have added experienced Premier League players such as Tuncay, Robert Huth and Jermaine Pennant to players with lower league experience like *grimace* Jonathan Walters.
Fulham
– Promoted in 2001 and have been ever-present since
– Their record since promotion is 13th, 14th, 9th, 13th, 12th, 16th, 17th, 7th, 12th and 8th.
– Played in the UEFA Cup once, reaching the final
– 27k ground capacity, with 25k average attendance
Although their spending has slowed in recent years, there is no doubt that in the first few seasons Mohammed Al-Fayed`s deep pockets protected the club from immediate relegation.
Notable signings over the years have been Steve Marlet £13m (remember him?), Steed Malbranque £5m, Edwin Van Der Sar £7m, Bobby Zamora £6m, Andy Johnson £10m, along with many others.
Bolton Wanderers
– Have been in the top flight since 2001 (after a few ups and downs) and have performed steadily since the 03/04 season only finishing below 14th in the league once.
– Played in the UEFA Cup in 2005/2006
– 29k ground capacity, with an average attendance of 23k
Tended to rely on lower-league signings or players rejected from Premier clubs. However, it wasn`t until the experience and quality of Gary Speed, Radhi Jaidi, Ivan Campo and El-Hadji-Diouf were added to the flair of JJ Ococha, Youri Djorkaeff, Stelios Giannakopoulos that performances started to stabilise on the pitch.
In terms of size of support, and therefore ultimately income potential, we are in the right company. We`re certainly bigger than Swansea, QPR and Wigan, and could sit comfortably in the pack outlined above.
However, the main difference between the teams outlined above who have prospered and Paul Lambert`s is that there have been no players signed who possess any significant Premier League experience.
At present (and surely there is more to come) our most experienced top flight players are James Vaughan (with debatable success) and 2nd choice left back Adam Drury.
I feel we need to be looking at players ready to depart from the relegated teams, maybe a Matthew Upson or a Roger Johnson would galvanise the back four, if we can convince them to take a trip out East.
If Pilkington signs, he will be the 6th of Lambert`s ‘half-dozen additions’ he talked about, which to be honest leaves me slightly concerned. I`m confident in the medium to long term, but in the short term things look less certain.
There is a certain amount of magic that Lambert can instil and the optimism of the last 2 years will carry the team so far.
However, when it comes to the business of getting points on the board, of shutting out the opposition, of grabbing last minute goals and winning vital points we will need more than magic and optimism.
We will need experience and quality, and we`ll need it quickly. We`ve come this far, let`s make sure we stay here.
OTBC
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